Tsunami of restaurant closures: what opportunities for Quebec SMEs in 2025?

Since 2023, the restaurant sector has been going through a veritable storm in Quebec and across Canada. Rising costs, declining patronage, labor shortages: one closure follows another, to the point where there is now talk of a veritable “reset” of the industry. According to an analysis by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, some 7,000 restaurants closed in Canada in 2025, with a further 4,000 expected in 2026, for a total of 11,000 closures nationwide in two years.[^1] In this difficult context, Quebec is particularly hard hit: nearly 15% of restaurants are estimated to have closed since the pandemic, and the province will account for more than 60% of restaurant bankruptcies in the country in 2024. ^2]
For Quebec SME owners, this sounds like bad news… but it’s also a unique opportunity to reposition, buy back assets and diversify. This article proposes a strategic reading of these closures and concrete ways to transform this crisis into an opportunity, thanks in particular to digital technology,artificial intelligence and operations optimization.

1. Understanding the wave of closures: key figures 2024-2026

Before talking about opportunities, we need to understand the scale and causes of the phenomenon. Restaurant closures are not simply a cyclical adjustment; they represent a profound recomposition of the market.

Some recent data speak for themselves:

• In Canada, 7,000 restaurants would have closed by 2025, and projections point to a further 4,000 closures by 2026, according to a Dalhousie University report, for a total of 11,000 disappearances in two years^[1].
• According to Restaurants Canada, 62% of the country’s restaurants were operating at a loss or barely breaking even by early 2024, compared with just 10% before the pandemic. Bankruptcies jumped 44% in 2023, a ten-year high^[3].
• In 2024, a report by Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton showed that Quebec was the Canadian leader in restaurant bankruptcies: 423 restaurants declared bankruptcy, representing 63.3% of all restaurant bankruptcies in Canada, and an increase of 4.2% over one year. Since the pandemic, nearly 15% of Quebec restaurants have closed^[2].
• The Association Restauration Québec (ARQ) estimates that around 20% of establishments have closed since the start of the pandemic, with the number of restaurants dropping from around 21,000 to 17,000^[4].
• On the sales front, Restaurants Canada notes that nominal growth is modest, and once inflation is deducted, real sales are slightly negative in 2024 at the national level.^[5] For 2025, the anticipated real growth in restaurant sales is just 0.8%, a very fragile increase.^[6] This is a very fragile increase.

The main structural causes of these closures are well identified:

• Inflation and input costs: rising food, energy and commercial rents.
• Wage pressure and labor shortages: the sector remains one of the hardest hit in terms of vacancies, forcing higher wages and shorter opening hours.
• Post-pandemic debt: many restaurateurs have been unable to absorb the burden of government loans (such as the CUEC) and rent deferrals.
• Changing consumer behavior: more than 36% of Canadians, across all generations , say they are eating out less often for budgetary reasons and to prioritize spending^[6].

For Quebec SMEs, this picture may seem bleak. Yet, in any consolidation cycle, space opens up for agile, digital and well-positioned players. The key is to read these trends not just as a threat, but as a global repositioning of the food market, where new forms of offerings (ready-to-eat, virtual kitchens, caterers, food e-commerce) are gaining ground.

2. Fewer restaurants, more room for agile and hybrid concepts

The closure of thousands of restaurants mechanically means a reduction in direct physical competition in many Quebec cities and neighborhoods. But the space left vacant will not necessarily be taken up by traditional restaurants. Instead, we’re seeing the emergence of hybrid models that combine dining, e-commerce, delivery, specialty grocery, events and experiences.

Some concrete opportunities for SMEs:

• Taking over premises at lower cost: many commercial leases are becoming available, often with landlords who are more open to negotiation (reduced base rent, contributions to leasehold improvements, flexible duration). For SMEs looking to launch a food concept, neighborhood café, microbrewery or hybrid space (boutique + café), this is a strategic time to negotiate advantageous terms.
• Lighter, more profitable concepts: dark kitchens, takeaway counters, seasonal kiosks, food trucks augmented by a high-performance online system. Instead of a large, full-service restaurant, many entrepreneurs prefer a leaner model that requires fewer front-of-house staff and more flexible inventory management.
• Niche positioning: as chains and generalist restaurants close, niches remain underexploited: local health food, quality vegan options, authentic ethnic offerings, menus focusing on Quebec terroir products, immersive culinary experiences (cooking classes, guided tastings, wine and beer pairings).
• Synergies with other SMEs: many retail businesses (microbreweries, roasters, food artisans, zero-waste boutiques) can take advantage of restaurant closures to open mixed spaces, where tasting, retail and events are combined.

However, this transition to more agile models requires extremely disciplined execution: tight cost control, the ability to adjust the offer quickly, and a good understanding of sales data and customer habits. This is precisely where modern digital tools come into play: CRM management, online ordering systems, marketing automation, real-time dashboards and more.

For a Quebec SME considering launching or repositioning itself in the food sector, the question is no longer simply “to open or not to open a restaurant”, but rather: “What hybrid, profitable and technologically sustainable model can I build from these new market conditions?”

3. From the “traditional restaurant” to the digital ecosystem: delivery, online stores and data

The pandemic has accelerated an irreversible trend: foodservice is no longer a purely physical sector. The companies that will come out on top in 2024-2026 are those that have built a complete digital ecosystem around their food offering. For Quebec SMEs, this opens up a wide range of opportunities, even without operating a traditional dining room.

Among the most promising strategic areas:

• Online food and ready-to-eat boutiques: rather than investing heavily in a large restaurant, a small business can develop an e-commerce site to sell ready-made products, weekly meal boxes, homemade sauces, made-to-order pastries, etc. The closure of many restaurants leaves customers looking for practical, quality alternatives for eating at home.
• Online ordering and optimized pick-up: Quebec consumers have become accustomed to ordering online, picking up on site or having their goods delivered. A well-designed web platform, integrated with a secure payment system and a reservation or ordering module, becomes a major competitive advantage, especially if it avoids the high commissions of certain third-party platforms.
• Exploiting customer data: in a context where a large proportion of restaurants operate at a loss, the difference between surviving and closing often lies in the ability to understand and retain customers. A CRM adapted to small and medium-sized businesses enables you to track frequency of visits, average basket size and food preferences, and automate targeted campaigns: offers for inactive customers, birthday promotions, special menus for the best customers, etc.
• Location-based digital marketing: when restaurants close in a given area, a “void” is created in the local offer. A well-equipped SME can precisely target these neighborhoods via online advertising (Google, social networks), highlighting delivery, pick-up and introductory offers to attract customers orphaned from their usual addresses.

In this environment,artificial intelligence becomes a strategic ally. AI chatbots can automatically answer frequently asked questions (times, allergens, menus, availability), take reservations, recommend products, or help manage customer reviews. SMEs that integrate these tools reduce the pressure on their teams while improving the customer experience.

In other words, closing restaurant trends don’t mean the end of the restaurant business, but a migration to more digital, integrated and data-centric models. Quebec SMEs prepared to invest intelligently in their online presence and automation are well positioned to capture the demand that is turning away from struggling traditional restaurants.

4. How Quebec SMEs can seize these opportunities now

Faced with forecasts of massive closures (up to 11,000 restaurants in Canada by the end of 2026^[1][9]), the challenge for Quebec SMEs is not to wait for “the end of the crisis”, but to lay the foundations for tomorrow’s business model right now. Here’s a pragmatic, four-pronged action plan.

1. Map local opportunities

• Identify neighborhoods where several restaurants have closed (commercial arteries, downtowns, growing suburban areas).
• Observe which offerings are disappearing (family cuisine, brunch, world cuisine, healthy options) and where the gaps in the offer are.
• Analyze public data (municipal statistics, economic development organizations) and industry sources such as Restaurants Canada to validate the trend.^[3][6]

2. Choose a resilient business model

• Assess whether you’re aiming for a “classic” restaurant or a hybrid model: counter + delivery, caterer + online store, culinary workshop + product sales, etc.
• Think in terms of multiple revenue streams: on-site catering (if relevant), online sales, subscriptions (monthly boxes), private events, merchandising.
• Integrate a logic of minimal fixed costs right from the design stage: optimized surface area, automation of repetitive tasks, standardization of certain recipes to limit waste.

3. Laying a solid digital foundation

• Invest in a professional website that’s clear, fast and conversion-oriented (orders, reservations, contacts). A specialized agency like Nuaweb can help you create a website tailored to the realities of Quebec SMEs.
• Set up an online ordering or reservation platform integrated with a secure payment system and inventory management.
• Deploy a CRM to track customers, segment the base and automate personalized marketing (newsletters, SMS, targeted campaigns).
• Explore AI tools: chatbots to answer 24/7, automatic menu recommendations, demand forecasting to better plan purchasing and staffing.

4. Measure, adjust, optimize

• Regularly monitor a few key indicators: material cost/sales, labor cost/sales, average basket, customer recurrence rate, marketing campaign conversion rate.
• Test new offerings (seasonal menus, theme boxes, local partnerships) on small samples, measure results, then roll out on a larger scale.
• Keep an eye out for government aid or tax measures to support the restaurant industry and SMEs, which can significantly improve profitability.

The 2024-2026 context is complex, but it favors entrepreneurs capable of combining business vision, local roots and digital mastery. Massive closures are painful for the ecosystem, but they also free up space for players better adapted to the new economic and technological realities.

Conclusion: turn the crisis in the restaurant industry into a growth lever for your SME

The latest statistics are clear: the restaurant sector in Quebec and Canada is undergoing a period of significant consolidation, marked by an unprecedented wave of closures. Quebec City accounts for a disproportionate share of bankruptcies, while nationwide, more than 11,000 restaurants are expected to disappear between 2025 and 2026^[1][2][9] For Quebec SMEs, this could mean a drop in traffic in certain sectors… but also an exceptional window of opportunity to rethink their positioning, sales channels and business model.

The opportunities lie where the old models are showing their limits: taking over premises on better terms, creating leaner, hybrid concepts, deploying food web stores, making strategic use of customer data, automating with AI, and integrating CRM to maximize every customer relationship. SMEs that know how to equip themselves with a robust digital infrastructure and a clear strategy will not only be able to survive these turbulent times, but also grow from the ashes of outdated models.

If you’re the owner of an SME in Quebec – be it a restaurant, caterer, ready-to-eat business or food retailer – you don’t have to face this transformation alone. Nuaweb supports Quebec companies in implementing AI solutions, high-performance websites, CRM and e-commerce platforms perfectly adapted to their reality.

Ready to turn restaurant closing trends into an opportunity for your SME? Let’s plan your next digital steps together. Contact Nuaweb for a free consultation and find out how to turn this period of change into a real growth lever.

References:
[1] Agri-Food Analytics Lab, Dalhousie University – Forecast of restaurant closures in Canada 2025-2026.
[2] Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton – “Quebec’s restaurant industry: challenges and sustainable solutions”, 2024.
[3] Restaurants Canada – “Challenges for the Restaurant Industry Persist into 2024 after Record Breaking Bankruptcies”, 2024.
[4] Association Restauration Québec (ARQ) – data cited by various Quebec media, 2023-2024.
[5] Restaurants Canada – “Restaurant sales stumble in September with weakest nominal growth of 2024”, December 2024.
[6] Restaurants Canada – 2025 sales forecasts and patronage trends, 2025.