US trade deficit 2024-2025: opportunities for Quebec SMEs

The US trade deficit reached new heights in 2024, but behind the headlines, this situation opens up real opportunities for Quebec SMEs. In 2024, the US deficit in goods and services jumped to around US$918 billion, up 17% on 2023, while imports rose by 6.6% and exports by 3.9%.[1] At the same time, Quebec’s international merchandise exports to the United States reached $91.1 billion in 2024, up 4.4% on 2023.[2] In 2024, Quebec’s trade deficit in goods and services rose to around US$918 billion, up 17% on 2023.

For Quebec SME managers, this combination – a significant US deficit, massive import needs and geographical proximity – represents a strategic playground. The key is to understand the major trends of 2024-2025, the growth sectors, the risks associated with the political context and, above all, how to equip your business (digital, AI, CRM, e-commerce) to take advantage of them. This is precisely what we explore in this article, with a concrete focus on Quebec SMEs.

1. Understanding the U.S. trade deficit 2024-2025 and its impact on Quebec

The latest data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA ) show that in 2024, the overall US trade deficit (goods and services) reached US$918.4 billion, up sharply on 2023 (US$784.9 billion). U.S. imports totaled US$4,110 billion (+6.6%), compared with exports of US$3,191.6 billion (+3.9%). 1] In other words, the U.S. still buys much more than it sells, and this dependence on imports is growing.

For Quebec, these figures translate into sustained demand for Canadian products and services, particularly in advanced manufacturing, resources, technologies and professional services. In 2024, Quebec’s merchandise exports to the U.S. reached $91.1 billion, representing growth of 4.4% over 2023.[2] Despite some setbacks in 2025 (-4.2% over the first eight months, then -5.3% over the first nine months compared to 2024), the U.S. remains by far Quebec’s leading export market.[3][4] The U.S. is also a major market for Canadian goods and services.

At the same time, the Bank of Canada points to a high level of uncertainty linked to US trade policy and the potential renegotiation of the USMCA. Projections point to weaker growth for the Canadian economy in 2026 (around 1.1%), due in particular to risks to exports. 5] This means that Quebec SMEs must both seize the opportunities offered by the US deficit and prepare for potential shocks (tariffs, non-tariff barriers, customs delays).

To sum up, your strategy is structured around three realities:

• The United States is importing more than ever, creating strong demand, including for Quebec suppliers.
• Quebec already has a solid export base in this market, with over $91 billion worth of goods to be exported by 2024.
• The 2025-2026 context is more volatile: diversification, digital agility and operational excellence become key to remaining competitive.

In this context, your SME’s ability to make itself visible, structure its sales and effectively manage its customer relationships takes on strategic importance. This is where AI, CRM and digital solutions come into play.

2. Where do opportunities lie for Quebec SMEs?

The U.S. trade deficit is not uniform: some sectors have large deficits, others have surpluses. For a Quebec SME, the question is not just “Are the U.S. importing more?”, but rather “In which segments is their need for imports most critical, and where can I position myself?”.

According to the BEA’s 2024 data, several categories contribute strongly to the goods deficit:

• Consumer goods (manufactured goods, pharmaceuticals, durable goods).
• Industrial goods and materials (metals, chemicals, forest products).
• Technological goods and capital (computers, semiconductors, specialized machinery).

On the Quebec side, statistics for 2024 and 2025 show good performance in several of these segments, but with variations by period. For example, for the first nine months of 2025, total Quebec exports are down 1.6% on 2024, but sales to countries other than the U.S. are up 9.1%, compared with -5.3% to the U.S.[4] This indicates both :

• a still strong dependence on the American market,
• but also a capacity to diversify rapidly when conditions become tense.

For an SME, promising niches linked to the American deficit include the following:

• Niche manufacturing: industrial components, custom parts, high value-added products where Canada-US proximity reduces lead times and logistics costs.
• Digital technologies and services: software development, cybersecurity, AI and data-driven solutions, which compensate for the lack of in-house capabilities at many US companies.
• Eco-responsible products: recycled materials, energy solutions, products with a low carbon footprint, as major US buyers look to green their supply chains.
• Processed food and specialties: in niche markets where “made in Québec” and superior quality can justify a price differential.

However, to convert these macroeconomic trends into real contracts, SMEs need to take several steps:

• be found by American buyers (professional web presence, referencing, English content, complete product sheets);
• be reliable (ability to respond quickly, structured customer service, management of leads and key accounts);
• be scalable (sales, production and logistics processes capable of absorbing sudden growth).

This is precisely where tools like an optimized website, AI automation and intelligent chatbots, a good sales-focused CRM and high-performance e-commerce can turn a theoretical opportunity into measurable sales growth.

3. Making your SME export-ready: digital, AI, CRM and e-commerce

American buyers – whether distributors, manufacturers or end customers – are constantly comparing multiple suppliers, often with just a few clicks. If your company isn’t visible, clear and responsive online, it will simply never be in the running, no matter how bad the trade deficit is.

Here are the four digital pillars to prioritize to exploit trends in the US trade deficit:

1) An export-oriented website

A dated or incomplete showcase site may be enough for a local word-of-mouth market, but much less so for convincing an American buyer. It’s essential to have a professional, bilingual website, optimized for search engine optimization (SEO) and designed to generate submission requests.

• Clear information on your production capacities, deadlines, certifications and sectors served.
• Pages dedicated to the US market (delivery conditions, incoterms, service in English).
• Integration of intelligent forms linked to your CRM, so you never lose a lead.

A specialized agency like Nuaweb can help you create an export-oriented website, in line with your development objectives in the United States.

2) AI and chatbots to capture and qualify US prospects 24/7

With the time difference and speed of decision-making on the American side, having a virtual assistant that instantly answers basic questions (indicative prices, lead times, technical documentation) becomes a competitive advantage. In particular, AI and chatbot solutions enable:

• automatically answer frequently asked questions in English and French;
• qualify leads (sector, estimated volume, timeframe) before passing them on to your teams;
• integrate this information directly into your CRM for structured follow-up.

3) A CRM to structure your export sales

In today’s volatile sales environment, it’s critical to accurately track your opportunities, your U.S. accounts and your sales cycles. An adapted sales CRM helps you to :

• map your US prospects and customers ;
• track the history of exchanges (e-mails, calls, quotations) ;
• prioritize high-potential accounts during periods of tension in certain segments (e.g. technology, specialized materials);
• forecast your export revenues and adjust your production capacity accordingly.

Well-integrated CRM solutions, like those implemented by Nuaweb, link your CRM management to your web forms, marketing campaigns and automation tools, so you never miss an American opportunity.

4) B2B/B2C e-commerce to sell directly to the US market

In many sectors (industrial parts, specialized products, consumer goods), launching an online store dedicated to the US market is a fast way to test demand and bypass certain intermediaries.

• Online catalog with prices, shipping conditions and border tax management.
• Integration with carriers (UPS, FedEx, etc.) and USD payment solutions.
• Possibility of offering B2B customer portals with negotiated rates and recurring orders.

With the right e-commerce solution, a Quebec SME can quickly take advantage of American dependence on imports, especially in niches poorly served by the big players.

4. Managing risk: diversification, resilience and market intelligence

The same trends that create opportunities also entail risks. Rising trade tensions, the ACEUM debate and threats of targeted tariffs are a reminder that the US market remains politically sensitive. Indeed, the Bank of Canada warns that the uncertainty associated with US trade policies could weigh on Canadian exports and investment over the next few years[5].

For a Quebec SME, the right approach is to :

• Maximize short- and medium-term U.S. opportunities by becoming more visible, more responsive and more technologically competitive.
• At the same time, build diversification options towards Europe, Asia or other Canadian provinces, as already demonstrated by the 9.1% growth in Quebec exports to countries other than the U.S. over the first nine months of 2025.[4]

In concrete terms, this involves several levers:

• Continuous market intelligence: monitoring tariffs, standards, US subsidies, strategic sectors (technology, energy, defense, healthcare).
• Agility of sales channels: quickly redirect all or part of your offer to other markets thanks to a flexible website, a well-structured CRM and a multi-currency e-commerce platform.
• Process automation: use AI to anticipate demand, adjust your inventory, prioritize high-potential leads and personalize your customer approaches.
• Brand building: invest in a consistent, professional online presence to inspire confidence in foreign buyers who don’t yet know you.

The SMEs that will come out on top between 2024 and 2026 won’t necessarily be the biggest ones, but those that have managed to professionalize their digital presence and business processes. Nuaweb is already supporting numerous Quebec companies in this transition, combining AI, web creation, CRM and e-commerce in an integrated approach.

Conclusion: turn the US deficit into a strategic advantage for your SME

The 2024-2025 U.S. trade deficit is not just a macroeconomic indicator: it’s a clear signal that the U.S. will continue to rely on imports to meet its needs for goods and services. For Quebec SMEs, this represents a significant window of opportunity, especially in a context where Quebec already exports over $91 billion worth of goods per year to this market, and where companies are demonstrating an ability to diversify.

The real question is no longer “is there a place for me in the U.S.?”, but rather, “is my company ready, numerically and commercially, to seize these opportunities while managing the risks?”

If you would like to :

• make your website more convincing to American buyers;
• set up a CRM to structure your export sales ;
• deploy e-commerce adapted to the US market;
• use AI (chatbots, automation) to capture and qualify more foreign prospects, 24/7, in English and French,

Nuaweb can support you from start to finish: strategy, technology, design, integration and performance monitoring.

Ready to turn the U.S. trade deficit into an engine of growth for your SME? Schedule a free consultation with Nuaweb today to discuss your project and build a winning digital export strategy together.