Groceries & essentials trends in Canada: 2024-2025 opportunities for Quebec SMEs

Between persistent inflation, changing consumer habits and targeted government aid, the Canadian grocery & essentials market is undergoing a profound transformation. For Quebec SMEs, these upheavals create as many risks as opportunities: price adjustments, diversification of the offer, digital customer experience, loyalty programs, etc. In 2024, store-bought food prices rose by a further 2.2% in Canada, following increases of 9.8% in 2022 and 7.8% in 2023, and households spent an average of 7.4% more on groceries than in 2021. ^{(Statistics Canada)}([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai)) In 2025, overall inflation calms down (2.1%), but grocery prices continue to climb (+3.5% on average), with, for example, +5.8% for meat and +20.3% for coffee over one year. ^{(Statistics Canada)}([syngenta.ca](https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/annual-inflation-rate-eases–food-prices-higher?utm_source=openai))

Against this backdrop, Quebec consumers are arbitrating their spending to a greater extent: looking for discounts, migrating to discount retailers, shopping online, prioritizing private labels and essential products. To do well, SMEs need to understand these groceries & essentials 2024-2025 trends, leverage data and equip themselves with digital tools: AI, automation, chatbots, CRM, e-commerce and transactional sites. This guide presents recent key figures and major opportunities for convenience stores, specialty groceries, convenience stores, essentials companies and food brands in Quebec.

1. A context of persistent food inflation: what Quebec SMEs need to know

After the inflationary shock of 2022 (+9.8% on in-store food prices) and 2023 (+7.8%), the rise in grocery prices slowed to +2.2% in 2024, but remains well above the historical average. ^{(Statistics Canada)}([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai)) Canadian households continue to feel the pressure: one household in four (25.5%) living in the provinces reported some form of food insecurity in 2023.([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai)) For 2025, the trend hardens again: in September 2025, households were paying 4.0% more for groceries than a year earlier, and food inflation reached 4.7% in November, its highest level since December 2023.([www150.statcan.gc.ca](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251021/dq251021a-eng.htm?utm_source=openai))

For Quebec SMEs in the groceries & essentials sector, this means :

• Rising supply costs: meat (+5.8% in 2025), coffee (+20% or more depending on category) and confectionery (+7.1%).([syngenta.ca](https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/annual-inflation-rate-eases–food-prices-higher?utm_source=openai))
• Squeezed margins: it’s hard to pass on all the cost increases to already vulnerable households.
• Increased price sensitivity: customers compare prices, hunt down special offers, and switch more easily to cheaper competitors.
• Multi-channel competition: large banners, warehouses, discount stores, e-commerce and home delivery.

Statistics Canada data also show a gradual shift in spending toward big-box stores and general retailers: the share of food sales in these stores rose from 21.6% at the beginning of 2021 to 25.9% by the end of 2022, and food sales there continued to grow faster than in traditional grocery stores in 2023-2024.^{(Statistics Canada)}([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai))

This means that small grocery stores, convenience stores, butcher shops, bakeries or essential goods stores in Quebec must differentiate themselves in three ways:

• Perceived value (not just gross price): advantageous formats, private labels, meal combos, subscriptions.
• Proximity and service: personalized customer experience, advice, adaptation to local realities.
• Digital agility: online visibility, easy ordering, targeted promotions, real-time communication.

The good news: despite inflation, Canadians continue to devote nearly a quarter of their retail spending to food. In 2024, retail sales reached $803 billion, of which $137 billion came from food and beverage outlets and $45.3 billion from general retailers for food products.^{(Statistics Canada)}([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai)) A massive market, in which Quebec SMEs can still gain ground if they adopt the right technological levers.

2. Buying habits 2024-2025: how Quebec consumers are adapting

Faced with sustained price rises, Canadian households are radically changing their purchasing behaviour. Recent data from Statistics Canada show an acceleration in spending on fresh produce and packaged goods at general retailers (warehouses, supercenters, discount stores), with growth of 8.0% for fresh produce and 9.2% for frozen and dry goods between 2023 and 2024, a pace almost three times faster than that of traditional grocery stores.^{(Statistics Canada)}([statcan.gc.ca](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8187-inflation-slowed-2024-canadians-continued-shift-their-grocery-shopping-habits?utm_source=openai))

In concrete terms, for the Quebec market, these trends translate into :

• More stores visited: consumers store for groceries in several stops to optimize each category (meat at a butcher’s, dry goods wholesale, local products in specialized stores).
• Priority to the essentials: milk, bread, eggs, meat, basic fruit and vegetables, hygiene and housekeeping remain unavoidable and take up a larger share of the budget.
• Aggressive search for promotions: increased use of discount applications, online circulars and comparators.
• Growing digital acceptance: online ordering, in-store pick-up (“click & collect”), local delivery.

In this context, successful SMEs are those that make information and savings visible and simple:

• Clearly present prices, discounts and economy formats on their website and social networks.
• Offer automated communication tools (emails, SMS, notifications) leveragingAI and chatbots to inform customers of promotions on essential products.
• Test digital loyalty programs accessible by telephone: points, discounts on basic products, personalized offers.

Quebec customers aren’t just looking for low prices, but predictability: knowing that their essential products will be reasonably priced, and that they can plan their spending. SMEs can build trust by :

• Blocking or limiting price increases on a basket of “essentials”.
• Communicating transparently about fluctuations (e.g.: rise in beef due to falling herds and 13-18% increase in fresh or frozen beef prices)([syngenta.ca](https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/annual-inflation-rate-eases–food-prices-higher?utm_source=openai)).
• Using economical recipes, meal boxes and combos to show how to feed a family on a constant budget despite inflation.

Finally, the rise of digital platforms and online food retailing makes a structured presence essential: a clear transactional site, a reliable inventory management system and integrated communication channels. Solutions like those offered by Nuaweb for e-commerce enable SMEs to reach their customers where they already shop: on their phone.

3. Government subsidies and grocery rebates: understanding the real impact on demand

To mitigate the impact of food inflation on low-income households, Ottawa introduced a one-time Grocery Rebate in 2023, paid as a bonus to the GST/HST credit. This payment, made in July 2023, could reach up to $628 for large low-income families, while single adults without children received smaller amounts.^{(Federal government, expert analyses)}([ifer.ca](https://www.ifer.ca/cra-grocery-rebate-december-2025/?utm_source=openai)) In 2024 and 2025, there was no new official separate grocery rebate program; supports are mostly integrated with existing credits and benefits, and several rumors of a “new grocery rebate” for 2025 have been denied.([westcoastblues.ca](https://www.westcoastblues.ca/canada-grocery-rebate-2025/?utm_source=openai))

For Quebec SMEs, the issue is not so much the mechanics of the programs as their effects on purchasing behavior:

• Targeted transfers to low-income households result in consumption peaks around benefit payment dates.
• A significant proportion of these amounts is spent on essential products: basic baskets, children’s products, hygiene products.
• Beneficiary households seek to maximize every dollar, combining discounts, private labels and economical formats.

SMEs can take advantage of these dynamics by :

• Aligning certain promotions with benefit payment periods (GST/HST credit, provincial benefits) to capture this increased demand.
• Creating ready-to-use “grocery & essentials” baskets (family, student, seniors) clearly displayed in-store and online.
• Communicating the value of these baskets in an educational way (price per portion, savings compared to buying by the unit).

To maximize impact, it becomes strategic to know exactly who your best customers are, and how they react to these economic signals. This is where a CRM adapted to retail becomes a major asset: it enables you to segment your clientele (families, students, low-income workers, seniors), analyze average baskets around payment dates and automate the sending of relevant offers. A solution like Nuaweb’s CRM Management helps you structure this data and turn it into profitable campaigns.

In short, even if grocery rebates are no longer at the heart of federal announcements, the idea of targeted support for grocery spending is still very much alive. SMEs that know how to anticipate and support these financial flows can stabilize their sales, smooth demand and retain a customer base that is often more loyal than average when a relationship of trust is well established.

4. Concrete opportunities for Quebec SMEs: AI, e-commerce and CRM for groceries & essentials

In an environment where grocery prices have been rising faster than general inflation for several months – +3.8% in April 2025 against overall inflation of 1.7%, then +4.7% in November 2025 against 2.2% for the basket as a whole – SMEs can no longer be content to adjust their prices piecemeal.([vancouver.citynews.ca](https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2025/05/20/grocery-price-increases-outpace-overall-inflation-for-third-straight-month-statcan/?utm_source=openai)) They must adopt a data-driven and digital approach.

Here are four priority courses of action, directly linked to Nuaweb solutions:

1) Setting up a local food e-commerce site

Online food retailing is no longer the preserve of the giants. A well-designed e-commerce site enables a local grocery store, butcher’s shop or specialty boutique to :

• Offer essential products in pre-configured baskets (e.g. “Week for 4” basket).
• Offer in-store pickup and/or local delivery, which is very popular in Quebec’s major urban centers.
• Highlight dynamic promotions and discounts on essentials.
• Collect data on shopping baskets to better anticipate demand.

Efficient e-commerce, linked to real-time inventory, minimizes stock-outs on essentials and avoids customer frustration, while opening up new revenue channels.

2) AI and chatbots to inform, reassure and build loyalty

Consumers want to know where to find the best value for money, and are increasingly asking their questions online (Google, social networks, messaging). An AI-powered chatbot, such as those developed by Nuaweb, can :

• Automatically answer questions about prices, stocks, promotions and essential products.
• Offer alternatives in the event of shortages (e.g. meat substitutes, different formats, private labels).
• Guide customers towards economical baskets adapted to their budget.
• Collect preferences to personalize future offers.

Combined with marketing automation tools, AI can generate targeted campaigns, for example: “10% discount on your essentials basket if you order before Sunday” or “Special promotion for families – save $15 on weekly basket”.

3) CRM and segmentation to maximize every marketing dollar

In a context of tight margins, every dollar invested in marketing must generate a measurable return. A well-configured CRM enables you to :

• Segment customers by behavior (purchase frequency, average basket, price sensitivity).
• Identify the essential products most purchased by segment (families with children, students, retirees).
• Automate targeted e-mail or SMS campaigns (e.g. “end-of-month” offers, “back-to-school” offers, etc.).
• Monitor promotional performance (open rate, conversion rate, average basket increase).

In the medium term, this in-depth work greatly strengthens loyalty: customers feel understood, receive truly relevant offers and are more inclined to stay with a business even if certain prices rise.

4) Optimized website and educational content

Finally, the basics: a website that’s professional, fast, mobile-friendly and optimized for search engine optimization (SEO). It must :

• Clearly present youressential categories (groceries, hygiene, cleaning, baby products, etc.).
• Highlight your commitments: fair prices, local products, economical options, sustainability.
• Offer educational content: low-budget recipes, guides to economical grocery shopping, explanations of price variations.
• Integrate tools for making appointments or B2B requests for restaurateurs, daycare centers, NPOs, etc.

Quality content aligned with Canadian grocery & essentials trends not only improves your visibility on Google, but also your credibility with Quebec consumers, who are increasingly attentive to the information they find online.

Conclusion: turning price pressure into competitive advantage through digital technology

The years 2024-2025 confirm that pressure on grocery & essentials prices is not a passing phenomenon. With food inflation outstripping overall inflation for several months now, and marked increases on products such as beef, coffee and confectionery, Quebec households are arbitrating their spending more than ever, and seeking value at every stage of their purchasing journey.([syngenta.ca](https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/annual-inflation-rate-eases–food-prices-higher?utm_source=openai))

For Quebec SMEs in the sector, the challenge is clear: not to suffer the context, but to use it as a lever for differentiation. This means :

• Better understanding of data (national statistics, actual customer behavior).
• An offer structured around essential products, with baskets and promotions designed for tight budgets.
• An assertive digital shift: e-commerce, CRM, AI, chatbots, marketing automation.
• Transparent, educational communication to build trust.

If you’re an independent grocer, convenience store, local produce retailer, food processor or brand of essentials in Quebec, you have a unique card to play: proximity and agility. With the right digital tools, you can compete effectively with the big chains, while staying close to your customers’ realities.

Would you like to explore how AI, CRM or an online store can boost your groceries & essentials sales? The Nuaweb team is already helping local SMEs with their digital transformation. Book a free consultation with our experts to quickly identify opportunities tailored to your business reality and build a profitable digital strategy today.